Scenario planning is a big part of the work I do (clinically and organizationally). While there are a variety of techniques available to engage the uncertainty of the future through scenario thinking, they can all be simply summed up in two words: What If.
In his excellent book, The Black Swan, Naseem Taleb draws our attention to a clear tendency to focus on the little we can explain and not the enormity of our ignorance. We should, he argues, spend more time on those “black swan” events that are thought unlikely that, should they occur, change everything. History is surely about “Black Swan” scenarios: 9/11, hurricane Katrina, AIDS, the black plague, fossil fuels, nuclear power, etc. What they all have in common is that, at a point, they were considered unlikely enough to be dismissed as practically insignificant and unworthy of priority attention.
There is a collection of essays entitled, What If, edited by Robert Cowley that embodies the spirit of scenaric thinking. It explores such topics as: what if WWII hadn’t occurred, if Napoleon invaded North America, if Pontius Pilate spared Jesus and instead crucified Barabbas?
Tonight, I am sitting with this collection of essays nearby and asking myself some “What Ifs.”
What If:
- I hadn’t married when I was 20?
- If I had pursued a more orthodox direction for expressing my Priesthood?
- If I hadn’t been the father of two children and watched them grow into adulthood?
- I had gone into music and theater and not psychology and theology?
- If my parents had survived to see my children grow into adulthood?
- If my younger sister had lived beyond her 17th year?
What if any of these happened ? Would I be a different man? Would I live a different way? What if this is my last year on Earth? Am I living fully enough now?
What are your “what ifs?” Where do they lead you?
Pax Et Bonum. Namaste.
© Brother Anton and The Harried Mystic, 2009. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from this blog’s author and/or owner is strictly prohibited.
The Harried Mystic 
I wrote a novel exploring the effects of what if… but in the novel, the events of th other life, the one unlived began colliding with the real one, and creating situations for chaos and re-evaluation. If I tell you the title was Little Gidding Girl, you will be able to spot where some of the thought was drawn from…
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The autobiographical nature of novels can at times stir up substantial amounts of unconscious materials. In the writing, too, I think a confidant who knows one well enough to do so, can offer perspective. So much of what we write can be powerful grist for the jungian analytic mill. Consider Jung’s Red Book diaries now recently published. They are a testament to the significance of writing to one’s spiritual unfoldment.
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Oh, by the way, I can appreciate what you mean given the novel’s title. The voice of T.S. Eliot immediately begins ringing in my ears.
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